ROI vs units: read a betting record without mixing denominators
Net units measure profit relative to a unit convention. ROI measures net profit relative to settled stakes. Use both with the full record and a clear denominator.
Write down the denominator
For a cash-stake record, net profit is total returned minus total staked. Returns include refunded stakes and the original stake on winning tickets. ROI is net profit ÷ total staked × 100. With $1,000 staked and $1,080 returned, profit is $80 and ROI is 8%.
A deposit is not the same as total staked. Reusing returned money can make turnover exceed the amount deposited. A report that divides profit by deposits is measuring something different from the stake-based ROI used here.
Equal profit can come from different exposure
| Record | Settled stakes | Net units | Stake-based ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 20u | +4u | 20% |
| B | 100u | +4u | 4% |
Both records earned four units, but B risked five times as many units. This does not establish that A’s method is better: sample size, odds, selection rules and uncertainty also matter. It does show why net units alone do not express efficiency relative to stake.
A winning majority can still lose money
Consider ten hypothetical tickets at −150, each risking 1u. Six wins earn 6 × ⅔u = 4u. Four losses cost 4u. The result is 60% wins and zero net units, before fees. More than half the tickets won, yet there was no profit.
Now consider four wins and six losses at +200 with the same 1u risk. The wins earn 8u, the losses cost 6u, and net profit is +2u: a 40% win rate with 20% ROI on 10u staked. These toy records illustrate arithmetic, not evidence of an advantage.
Include refunds consistently
Suppose four tickets each risk 1u at +100: one wins, one loses, one pushes and one is voided with a full refund. Returns total 4u and profit is zero. The stake-based denominator used by CashCord includes all four settled stakes, including the refunded ones. Win rate uses only wins and losses, giving 1 ÷ 2 = 50%.
Other reports may exclude refunded stakes from an ROI denominator. Label the convention before comparing them. Keep unresolved tickets outside settled ROI, and disclose promotions or fees that the simple cash-stake calculation leaves out.
Read the record before the headline
Ask for start and end dates, sample size, exact odds, amount risked, all outcomes and correction history. A short high-ROI run can be noisy. A selectively published set can be misleading even when the visible arithmetic is correct.
CashCord’s public record pages are currently previews with no picks. This guide describes how to interpret a record; it does not claim CashCord has produced any of the hypothetical results above.
Try the numbers yourself.
Open the calculator with this guide’s example inputs. Change one assumption at a time and see what changes.
Open roi calculatorCommon questions
Is ROI the same as bankroll growth?
No. Stake-based ROI divides profit by cumulative settled stakes. Bankroll growth uses a bankroll starting value and must also account for deposits, withdrawals and open exposure.
Can ROI tell me the next pick’s win probability?
No. Historical profit relative to stake is a summary of past outcomes, not a calibrated forecast of the next event.
Sources and example scope
All records in this guide are explicitly hypothetical. The formulas match the calculator and the declared record model, not a live performance claim.