Teaser math: adjusted lines still need a joint probability
A teaser changes selected spreads or totals and assigns a combined ticket price. More favorable thresholds do not establish whether the price compensates for the chance that the ticket loses.
Write the adjusted contract and the actual quote
As a purely hypothetical six-point adjustment, −8.5 becomes −2.5 and +1.5 becomes +7.5. Those thresholds can be easier to cover, but the combined payout changes too. Record both original and adjusted lines, the number of legs, the offered ticket odds and the exact push/void rules.
Do not multiply the original single-leg odds to manufacture a teaser payout. The operator quotes the combined ticket under its own product rules. The examples below assume a two-leg ticket at −120; this is an illustrative price, not a current offer.
Calculate the ticket threshold first
A −120 ticket has decimal odds of 1 + 100 ÷ 120 = 1.8333…. If the only outcomes are win and loss, its break-even joint win chance is 1 ÷ 1.8333… = 54.55%. This refers to the whole ticket, not either leg.
| Each leg’s assumed chance | Chance both win | Expected ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 70% | 49.00% | −10.17% |
| 75% | 56.25% | +3.13% |
With identical independent leg probabilities q, break-even requires q² = 0.54545…, or q ≈ 73.85%. Independence and equal probabilities are assumptions for this demonstration. They are not facts about two real selections, even when the selections involve different games.
Price the points through their outcome distribution
Suppose a hypothetical margin distribution assigns 5% probability to the newly covered margins. The adjustment adds five percentage points to that leg’s win chance under the specified rules. If another distribution assigns only 1% there, the same number of bought points adds one point of win probability.
This is why a fixed point adjustment has no universal probability value. Crossing an integer where a push becomes a win also requires separate accounting. Do not substitute an unsupported “key number” rule for an estimated, relevant distribution.
Include every settlement branch
A refund branch contributes zero net profit but changes the probabilities assigned to wins and losses. Some ticket types instead treat a pushed leg as a loss or reduce the ticket to another payout level. DraftKings’ published explanation distinguishes its regular teaser treatment from Super/Monster push treatment; check the exact current product and jurisdiction before interpreting any example.
For the general case, sum probability × net profit across all possible ticket settlements. CashCord’s implied-probability tool only converts the combined −120 price. It does not model adjusted thresholds, push branches or leg dependence, and its 54.55% display is not a forecast.
Try the numbers yourself.
Open the calculator with this guide’s example inputs. Change one assumption at a time and see what changes.
Open implied probability calculatorCommon questions
Can the parlay calculator price a teaser?
It can multiply decimal inputs, but that does not establish an operator’s teaser quote. Use the actual combined ticket price and a separate settlement model.
Are two 75% legs always a 56.25% ticket?
Only under independence and with the same definition of a win. Dependence and push or void branches can change the result.
Sources and example scope
The operator source supports product definitions and differing settlement branches. All prices, probability cases and threshold calculations here are hypothetical original examples, not teaser recommendations.